4 hours to go until Trump's speech and it's being reported that he still isn't sure if he's going to declare a national emergency to get around the Congressional stalemate. If his intention was to make a strong move to kneecap the Democrats, this is not it. Seems that he (more likely his advisors) recognize the legal pitfalls of such a move. So right now, expect a more "persuasive" argument to sway public opinion in his favour that the wall is necessary to put the heat back on the Dems, rather than the nuclear option of using his absolute power to bypass them.
For the viewing public tuning in to see what crazy things the Don will say, the downside is that this is an Oval Office speech and not a town rally. It is hard to imagine him going off script when the only audience is a camera and no living people in his sightlines to feed his ego, and I'm sure Steven Miller has got tight reins on that script and its message. Not that I don't expect there to be majorly inflammatory rhetoric in it - Miller is by all accounts a reprehensible human being (never met the man, to be as fair as possible) and not so secretly racist, but he is savvy in ways Donald is not, so he can craft a devious message and let his puppet parrot the lines.
The Democrats have already booked time for a rebuttal from Schumer and Pelosi right after. Won't be much time to script a response cribbing from Trump's comments, but I don't think that should be their focus. They have so many targets to hit here, the question is: will they do it right? History suggests Democrats don't, because they want to appeal to the humanity in Americans, rather than get dirty and call out the liars and hypocrites for fear of retaliation. IMO, their talking points need to be the following, repeated ad nauseum to frame the counter-attack properly:
1. Trump has lied from the beginning. "Mexico will pay for the wall!" Now, knowing that it was a phony and impossible promise from the beginning, he wants the American taxpayer to pay for his lies, and is willing to hold them hostage (Gov't shutdown putting 800,000 out of work and pay) to get his way, and for months or years, just to get his way. This President will destroy the average American he swore an oath on the Constitution to protect, by putting his own needs ahead of yours as Americans.
2. "I own the shutdown". We all saw these words from his mouth. He has repeated them. Not only does he own it, he is PROUD of it. Proud of putting hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work for his own vanity project, and he will do so for as long as he wants - months to years. This is the man who would protect the average Joe from big Government?
3. Crisis at the border: another LIE. Only 4 terror suspect at the southern border, not 6,000. Vast majority of influx of drugs, terror watch list suspects, and crime comes through legal ports of entry like sea, or moreso, air. And what has the President done to protect our airports. Shutdown the Government, leading to zero pay for TSA agents who have now stopped showing up. Our airports are now less secure, all because of the president. HE has caused the greatest threat to our safety now. [it may be gilding the lily to say "Remember the last time our airspace was compromised by those 19 Saudi hijackers - a country our President still upholds as a vital and important economic trade partner (so we can see whose economic interest he DOES care about, if not 800,000 Americans) despite knowing of the implication of that country's Crown prince in the coldblooded murder of an American citizen and journalist" - that statement could generate a lot of heat, but if you are going to get in a street fight, you have to fight to hurt, I say].
4. Democrats WANT to fix this problem. Border security is important, which is why we voted to pass 1.6 billion in funding in our last bill, to spend on NECESSARY improvements. The Republicans (McConnell) now refuse to bring that bill to the Senate for a vote. Funny though, they passed the exact same bill two weeks ago 100-0 before the President vetoed it. Now they have fallen in line with the President's position to hold the country hostage until he gets his way.
Any soft sell that makes this about being a good country and HELPING in a Humanitarian crisis just washes over Trump's misdeeds and plays into his hands ("see, the Dems agree that this is a crisis"). Experience makes me worry that the Democrats will choose this touchy feely route and lose the message battle.