Lock of the Week 3 (**UPDATED RESULTS**)

July 9, 20159 yr

Anthony Allen

I'd be cautious about Allen. He didn't get many carries last game. Messam is probably a safer pick.

Under the advice of my attorney, I will change my pick to Sutton which sounds a lot like Messam and my hearing isn't what it once was thanks Obama.

I am saddene by suttons popularity this week.. Hope this goes up on the bulletin board on chancellor drive lol

(And yes I know it's not an unfounded reason behind his popularity.. If I was a betting man, I'd pick him too.. But alas, gotta root fer the underdogs!)

It's about predictability and probability, not pessimism. The chances of Montreal not scoring a single touchdown are low, the chances that the run game will be a significant part of their gameplan with a rookie QB is high, and Sutton is the leading rusher in the league. And sadly, the Bombers are allowing the second most rushing yards per game so far. The chances that Sutton will be part of a Montreal rushing TD are high. I'd say 80%. The Bombers on the other hand use two RBs, both of whom have TDs, and have shown a tendency to run Marve as well in goal line situations. So the chances that Cotton is part of a Bombers rushing TD is much lower. Maybe 45%. Cotton gets the ball all the way down to the 2, then Marshall gets to finish the job, that kind of thing. I'd still have the Bombers as slight favourites to win the game. If they could ever establish any kind of homefield advantage they'd be more than slight favourites.

I usually stay away from picking anyone in the Bomber games just to remove emotional bias from the equation, but I'm done using my thinkity thoughts on football today and just getting this done. Brain is taking an early weekend.