I know it’s easy to be dismissive of J5V if you don’t agree with his position, but we shouldn’t be dismissive of these reports without actually listening to them. At the same time, one shouldn’t just read the headline and cherry-pick a single response and pretend that the article is supportive of their alternate viewpoint without engaging in the same critical examination of the information provided. This won’t be a short post, so if a quick sound bite that reinforces your side’s position is what you want, just stop reading now and don’t bother sending me a “TLDR” post. But understand my from my viewpoint that this just highlights the problems we have right now in engaging in this discussion, that we don’t bother digging into our arguments and just spout one-off comments.
From listening to the full recorded interview, in my opinion the radio host seems to have a veiled bias towards supporting the Swedish approach to non-lockdown, saying the Dr.’s comments point out Sweden’s “positive approach”. I don’t think the comments go that far. What I hear the doctor saying is that in the future, countries may have to decide that a lockdown is no longer feasible to combat the virus, and if they want to live in a world without lockdown they could look at the Swedish model as a way to coexist with the virus, allowing schools and businesses to be open but being extra mindful of social distancing precautions, which is what the Swedish government says it has been advocating. The Dr. doesn’t take a position one way or another on the Swedish approach as positive or negative, but says lessons can be learned from it by other countries going forward. He does not, to my mind, advocate that this was the right strategy from the outset, or the wrong one, for that matter.
It is also important to note that the original question asked was whether the “herd immunity” concept Sweden was going for means that this was the better approach, and in answering he cautioned that very few who had contracted COVID 19 had developed the antibodies to combat the virus as a result of exposure, meaning they were still very susceptible to the virus in the future. Herd immunity may well not result from Sweden’s approach.
Hindsight will be 20/20 as to which approach will be better in the long run. If Sweden does not have a second wave, survives this wave without overwhelming its healthcare system, develops herd immunity, and kept its economy humming the whole time, then we can say they chose wisely. That’s a lot of “if’s”, mind you. Those same “if’s” could apply to Canada if the lockdown doesn’t reduce the number of overall deaths or cases in the end, still overwhelms the health care system and resources, and drags down the economy irrevocably in the process with no real net benefit. But if Sweden’s approach means unnecessary deaths to save an economy that would have rebounded anyway, and Canada’s approach saves a health care system from collapse and its economy does rebound with no lingering effects long term, then you could say Sweden chose poorly. No one can say what the best approach long term will be because we are nowhere near long term yet.
What I can say confidently is that short-term, New Zealand and South Korea both took strong measures to lock down their countries quickly and have virtually eliminated cases in their countries for the time being. Italy was late in responding with devastating results for their population. Canada has taken strict measures but the numbers of new cases and deaths does not seem to be waning just yet (although there are some stark regional differences at play). Sweden has put its trust in its citizens to govern themselves accordingly without over-regulation. Their numbers of cases are lower than Canada’s, and although their total deaths are close with one third of the population, their numbers in terms of new cases and daily deaths seem to be going down now, while Canada’s hold level. And I’m not sure all Canadians would show the same self-restraint if merely “encouraged” to stay at home and avoid public gatherings which put them at risk. We’ve seen plenty of examples of lack of self-restraint south of the border, which puts everyone at risk, the reckless and the careful alike.
Finally, what I see as telling are the results of the closed cases in select countries. All numbers courtesy of worldometers.com. Worldwide there are 3.5 million cases, and one third of them are now closed (meaning ended in recovery or death). 18% of those closed cases worldwide resulted in death. In South Korea, 85% of their cases are closed, and only 2.7% of those closed cases were deaths. In New Zealand, likewise 85% of their cases are closed with a 1.5% death rate. In Canada, just under 50% of our cases are closed, and 13% of those closed cases resulted in death. In the US, only 20.7% of cases are closed, with a death result of 28%. And in Sweden, only 16.5% of their cases are closed, and of those closed cases a staggering 73% have resulted in death. Interpret those numbers as you wish, but for me it’s hard to argue that Sweden’s approach has not put many more lives in jeopardy unnecessarily in the short term given that very high fatality rate.